The future remains foggy as the coronavirus pandemic charges into the second half of the year, with more than 1 million new infections reported in the past week. But one thing is clear, experts say: there is no easy way out.
Infectious disease experts can only theorise about what trajectory the virus will take in the coming months and whether it will embed itself permanently in the population and circulate every year.
But they generally agree that the future will depend on how governments use strategies and tools, and how people adapt their daily lives.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the World Health Organisation, said on Monday that things would only get “worse and worse and worse” if countries and people did not take the necessary steps to stop the spread of Covid-19.
There was no way for the world to return to the “old normal” for the foreseeable future, he said.
Several places that appeared to have had the contagion under control saw case numbers spike after social distancing measures were eased.
Hong Kong went three weeks without a locally transmitted case, but since July 5 has recorded more than 200, with the origins of dozens of them unclear.
Australia’s second-largest city Melbourne last week reimposed a shutdown of all but essential activities, after its case numbers spiked, and stringent controls were temporarily ordered again in Beijing last month after an outbreak linked to a local market ended a 55-day streak of no local cases there.
Two factors that can drive these sudden increases are the spread of the disease by asymptomatic and mild cases, and the potential for superspreading events, according to Sanjaya Senanayake, a specialist in infectious diseases and associate professor at the Australian National University medical school in Canberra.
Spikes in case numbers would lead to the reimposition of stricter control measures like working from home, and potentially closing schools and businesses to ensure the situation did not “spiral out of control”, he said.
With a vaccine unlikely to be ready before the middle of next year, the public should be prepared to deal with these measures “at any time if there’s an outbreak”, he said.
“[Such measures] will be put in place early, hopefully, when there’s an outbreak, and then be lifted … but it’s all very unsettling and uncertain,” Senanayake said, adding that overseas travel would also be limited for many people during this time.
Senanayake said there were still questions as to how long people who had had the disease retained immunity to it.
“If there isn’t long-term immunity, [in the absence of a vaccine] it could just become a vicious cycle of ongoing infection,” he said.
Ashley St John, an assistant professor and immunologist at Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore, said that while there was more to be learned about immunity to the disease, in the long term, having vaccines to help minimise transmission would be “essential for getting back to normal”.
But it was important to be realistic about their impact, as early vaccines were not likely to “completely prevent any infection in anyone”, she said.
Instead they could be used alongside other control measures to reduce transmission, especially for at-risk people, while further research looks to extend their longevity or efficacy.
“The best vaccines give us protection for a lifetime, and so falling short of that might seem like a failure,” she said. “But we need something at this stage.”
We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality